Model Calibration June-August

Extreme

13 of 110 ranges weak

Home Win

▲ mostly pessimistic

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	115	94.65%	93.04%	▼ -1.61	Good
1.10–1.20	345	86.54%	83.19%	▼ -3.35	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	436	80.06%	80.73%	▲ +0.68	Very good
1.30–1.40	452	74.12%	78.76%	▲ +4.64	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	605	68.88%	71.74%	▲ +2.85	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	765	64.45%	66.41%	▲ +1.96	Good
1.60–1.70	885	60.64%	62.71%	▲ +2.07	Good
1.70–1.80	844	57.20%	58.77%	▲ +1.57	Good
1.80–1.90	748	54.07%	55.35%	▲ +1.28	Good
1.90–2.00	727	51.27%	54.75%	▲ +3.48	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	718	48.82%	48.61%	▼ -0.21	Very good
2.10–2.20	747	46.53%	48.33%	▲ +1.79	Good
2.20–2.30	721	44.46%	45.35%	▲ +0.90	Very good
2.30–2.40	722	42.55%	45.98%	▲ +3.43	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	730	40.89%	41.37%	▲ +0.48	Very good
2.50–2.60	670	39.23%	39.55%	▲ +0.33	Very good
2.60–2.70	595	37.77%	41.18%	▲ +3.41	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	585	36.40%	40.17%	▲ +3.77	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	489	35.10%	34.97%	▼ -0.13	Very good
2.90–3.00	408	33.91%	36.52%	▲ +2.61	Acceptable

Away Win

mixed2 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	64	94.69%	95.31%	▲ +0.62	Very good
1.10–1.20	144	86.73%	84.03%	▼ -2.70	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	177	79.95%	77.40%	▼ -2.54	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	252	74.03%	74.60%	▲ +0.57	Very good
1.40–1.50	287	68.98%	68.29%	▼ -0.69	Very good
1.50–1.60	291	64.51%	66.32%	▲ +1.82	Good
1.60–1.70	379	60.57%	60.42%	▼ -0.15	Very good
1.70–1.80	446	57.13%	62.56%	▲ +5.42	Weak
1.80–1.90	490	54.06%	53.67%	▼ -0.39	Very good
1.90–2.00	417	51.26%	55.64%	▲ +4.38	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	427	48.85%	55.50%	▲ +6.65	Weak
2.10–2.20	442	46.55%	44.34%	▼ -2.20	Good
2.20–2.30	458	44.46%	43.67%	▼ -0.79	Very good
2.30–2.40	472	42.57%	45.13%	▲ +2.56	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	488	40.83%	40.78%	• -0.05	Very good
2.50–2.60	433	39.23%	39.49%	▲ +0.26	Very good
2.60–2.70	457	37.72%	38.95%	▲ +1.23	Good
2.70–2.80	460	36.36%	33.04%	▼ -3.31	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	445	35.10%	37.98%	▲ +2.88	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	414	33.88%	35.99%	▲ +2.11	Good

Over 2.5

▲ mostly pessimistic4 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	96	93.31%	87.50%	▼ -5.81	Weak
1.10–1.20	353	86.68%	85.27%	▼ -1.41	Good
1.20–1.30	886	79.53%	80.93%	▲ +1.39	Good
1.30–1.40	1,554	73.84%	78.83%	▲ +4.98	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	2,039	69.00%	75.23%	▲ +6.24	Weak
1.50–1.60	2,075	64.57%	69.59%	▲ +5.02	Weak
1.60–1.70	1,784	60.68%	66.26%	▲ +5.58	Weak
1.70–1.80	1,599	57.23%	60.79%	▲ +3.56	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	1,267	54.12%	53.43%	▼ -0.69	Very good
1.90–2.00	1,039	51.38%	52.07%	▲ +0.69	Very good
2.00–2.10	783	48.84%	50.57%	▲ +1.73	Good
2.10–2.20	628	46.58%	48.25%	▲ +1.67	Good
2.20–2.30	510	44.45%	44.71%	▲ +0.25	Very good
2.30–2.40	395	42.61%	43.04%	▲ +0.43	Very good
2.40–2.50	392	40.86%	42.60%	▲ +1.75	Good
2.50–2.60	355	39.24%	42.82%	▲ +3.58	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	290	37.79%	35.86%	▼ -1.93	Good
2.70–2.80	222	36.39%	36.94%	▲ +0.54	Very good
2.80–2.90	169	35.13%	37.87%	▲ +2.74	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	125	33.94%	34.40%	▲ +0.46	Very good

Under 2.5

▼ mostly optimistic3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.40–1.50	252	68.48%	72.22%	▲ +3.74	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	600	64.35%	63.00%	▼ -1.35	Good
1.60–1.70	826	60.64%	59.69%	▼ -0.95	Very good
1.70–1.80	772	57.16%	55.31%	▼ -1.85	Good
1.80–1.90	799	54.05%	53.57%	▼ -0.48	Very good
1.90–2.00	872	51.30%	49.77%	▼ -1.52	Good
2.00–2.10	931	48.75%	47.80%	▼ -0.95	Very good
2.10–2.20	932	46.51%	47.64%	▲ +1.13	Good
2.20–2.30	895	44.45%	43.13%	▼ -1.32	Good
2.30–2.40	878	42.56%	38.95%	▼ -3.61	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	830	40.85%	36.63%	▼ -4.23	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	740	39.24%	32.70%	▼ -6.54	Weak
2.60–2.70	710	37.76%	33.10%	▼ -4.66	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	653	36.39%	32.92%	▼ -3.46	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	652	35.09%	27.91%	▼ -7.17	Weak
2.90–3.00	543	33.91%	28.18%	▼ -5.74	Weak

BTTS Yes

mixed3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.30–1.40	70	73.23%	70.00%	▼ -3.23	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	538	68.36%	68.59%	▲ +0.23	Very good
1.50–1.60	1,728	64.29%	67.30%	▲ +3.01	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	2,703	60.60%	64.82%	▲ +4.22	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	2,622	57.23%	60.26%	▲ +3.03	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	1,999	54.08%	58.03%	▲ +3.95	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	1,658	51.34%	53.20%	▲ +1.85	Good
2.00–2.10	1,458	48.81%	50.07%	▲ +1.26	Good
2.10–2.20	1,087	46.53%	47.75%	▲ +1.22	Good
2.20–2.30	863	44.51%	45.42%	▲ +0.91	Very good
2.30–2.40	607	42.59%	41.19%	▼ -1.41	Good
2.40–2.50	432	40.88%	42.82%	▲ +1.95	Good
2.50–2.60	293	39.25%	38.91%	▼ -0.34	Very good
2.60–2.70	215	37.77%	32.56%	▼ -5.21	Weak
2.70–2.80	151	36.40%	33.77%	▼ -2.63	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	87	35.13%	28.74%	▼ -6.39	Weak
2.90–3.00	75	33.94%	44.00%	▲ +10.06	Weak

BTTS No

▼ mostly optimistic1 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.30–1.40	53	73.54%	75.47%	▲ +1.93	Good
1.40–1.50	157	68.69%	75.80%	▲ +7.10	Weak
1.50–1.60	380	64.22%	66.05%	▲ +1.83	Good
1.60–1.70	731	60.46%	61.01%	▲ +0.55	Very good
1.70–1.80	1,154	57.06%	57.11%	• +0.05	Very good
1.80–1.90	1,430	54.05%	52.38%	▼ -1.67	Good
1.90–2.00	1,573	51.29%	50.48%	▼ -0.81	Very good
2.00–2.10	1,490	48.79%	46.98%	▼ -1.81	Good
2.10–2.20	1,495	46.53%	41.94%	▼ -4.59	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	1,427	44.42%	42.75%	▼ -1.68	Good
2.30–2.40	1,455	42.55%	37.66%	▼ -4.88	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	1,328	40.83%	37.42%	▼ -3.41	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	1,154	39.26%	35.79%	▼ -3.47	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	913	37.76%	33.19%	▼ -4.57	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	627	36.42%	32.70%	▼ -3.72	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	476	35.13%	32.98%	▼ -2.14	Good
2.90–3.00	345	33.96%	32.75%	▼ -1.21	Good

Cat (CatBoost Mix)

28 of 113 ranges weak

Home Win

▲ mostly pessimistic2 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	61	94.37%	95.08%	▲ +0.72	Very good
1.10–1.20	247	87.58%	90.28%	▲ +2.70	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	376	80.11%	79.79%	▼ -0.32	Very good
1.30–1.40	466	73.82%	78.97%	▲ +5.15	Weak
1.40–1.50	550	69.10%	74.36%	▲ +5.26	Weak
1.50–1.60	635	64.47%	68.19%	▲ +3.72	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	623	60.64%	62.12%	▲ +1.48	Good
1.70–1.80	777	57.12%	59.20%	▲ +2.08	Good
1.80–1.90	835	54.03%	57.37%	▲ +3.33	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	905	51.30%	54.59%	▲ +3.28	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	837	48.83%	50.42%	▲ +1.59	Good
2.10–2.20	728	46.60%	48.21%	▲ +1.61	Good
2.20–2.30	656	44.36%	44.51%	▲ +0.15	Very good
2.30–2.40	843	42.62%	41.87%	▼ -0.74	Very good
2.40–2.50	681	40.83%	44.20%	▲ +3.37	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	646	39.25%	40.09%	▲ +0.84	Very good
2.60–2.70	553	37.77%	37.79%	• +0.03	Very good
2.70–2.80	439	36.36%	35.99%	▼ -0.36	Very good
2.80–2.90	390	35.10%	33.33%	▼ -1.77	Good
2.90–3.00	304	33.86%	32.24%	▼ -1.62	Good

Away Win

▲ mostly pessimistic5 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	37	93.24%	83.78%	▼ -9.46	Weak
1.10–1.20	120	86.81%	90.83%	▲ +4.02	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	97	80.01%	82.47%	▲ +2.46	Good
1.30–1.40	160	73.90%	76.25%	▲ +2.35	Good
1.40–1.50	220	68.97%	72.27%	▲ +3.30	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	235	64.53%	74.89%	▲ +10.36	Weak
1.60–1.70	299	60.45%	60.87%	▲ +0.42	Very good
1.70–1.80	310	57.28%	64.19%	▲ +6.91	Weak
1.80–1.90	381	53.87%	54.86%	▲ +0.98	Very good
1.90–2.00	401	51.37%	58.35%	▲ +6.99	Weak
2.00–2.10	369	48.77%	53.12%	▲ +4.35	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	420	46.54%	52.62%	▲ +6.08	Weak
2.20–2.30	436	44.49%	49.08%	▲ +4.59	Acceptable
2.30–2.40	441	42.56%	44.22%	▲ +1.66	Good
2.40–2.50	408	40.84%	39.95%	▼ -0.89	Very good
2.50–2.60	418	39.22%	37.80%	▼ -1.42	Good
2.60–2.70	456	37.80%	42.54%	▲ +4.74	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	438	36.38%	38.81%	▲ +2.43	Good
2.80–2.90	428	35.09%	31.78%	▼ -3.31	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	471	33.89%	35.46%	▲ +1.57	Good

Over 2.5

▲ mostly pessimistic4 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.10–1.20	201	85.90%	88.56%	▲ +2.65	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	483	79.48%	84.27%	▲ +4.78	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	1,408	73.79%	78.62%	▲ +4.84	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	2,200	68.93%	75.64%	▲ +6.71	Weak
1.50–1.60	1,946	64.64%	71.07%	▲ +6.42	Weak
1.60–1.70	1,584	60.67%	64.58%	▲ +3.91	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	1,369	57.19%	60.70%	▲ +3.52	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	1,171	54.06%	54.31%	▲ +0.25	Very good
1.90–2.00	947	51.29%	53.85%	▲ +2.56	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	837	48.83%	50.18%	▲ +1.35	Good
2.10–2.20	660	46.55%	47.88%	▲ +1.33	Good
2.20–2.30	564	44.40%	41.84%	▼ -2.56	Acceptable
2.30–2.40	470	42.62%	42.34%	▼ -0.28	Very good
2.40–2.50	335	40.84%	39.40%	▼ -1.43	Good
2.50–2.60	293	39.21%	41.64%	▲ +2.43	Good
2.60–2.70	252	37.73%	32.54%	▼ -5.19	Weak
2.70–2.80	182	36.41%	38.46%	▲ +2.05	Good
2.80–2.90	117	35.13%	36.75%	▲ +1.62	Good
2.90–3.00	91	33.94%	25.27%	▼ -8.66	Weak

BTTS Yes

▲ mostly pessimistic5 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.40–1.50	211	68.03%	71.56%	▲ +3.53	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	1,024	63.96%	69.04%	▲ +5.08	Weak
1.60–1.70	2,671	60.70%	66.53%	▲ +5.83	Weak
1.70–1.80	2,584	57.17%	60.95%	▲ +3.78	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	2,290	54.10%	56.51%	▲ +2.41	Good
1.90–2.00	1,754	51.33%	53.25%	▲ +1.92	Good
2.00–2.10	1,399	48.86%	49.46%	▲ +0.61	Very good
2.10–2.20	1,102	46.59%	46.28%	▼ -0.31	Very good
2.20–2.30	976	44.50%	42.83%	▼ -1.67	Good
2.30–2.40	532	42.64%	41.35%	▼ -1.28	Good
2.40–2.50	296	40.90%	32.09%	▼ -8.81	Weak
2.50–2.60	160	39.30%	41.25%	▲ +1.95	Good
2.60–2.70	70	37.71%	44.29%	▲ +6.57	Weak
2.70–2.80	49	36.48%	38.78%	▲ +2.30	Good
2.80–2.90	37	35.17%	40.54%	▲ +5.37	Weak

Home 2+

▲ mostly pessimistic3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	55	93.66%	96.36%	▲ +2.71	Acceptable
1.10–1.20	231	86.79%	90.48%	▲ +3.68	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	344	79.79%	81.69%	▲ +1.90	Good
1.30–1.40	512	73.79%	75.78%	▲ +1.99	Good
1.40–1.50	635	68.96%	74.02%	▲ +5.05	Weak
1.50–1.60	725	64.51%	74.07%	▲ +9.56	Weak
1.60–1.70	802	60.59%	65.71%	▲ +5.12	Weak
1.70–1.80	890	57.14%	60.67%	▲ +3.54	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	972	54.07%	56.89%	▲ +2.82	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	902	51.30%	55.21%	▲ +3.91	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	895	48.83%	53.63%	▲ +4.80	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	783	46.53%	47.77%	▲ +1.23	Good
2.20–2.30	782	44.44%	44.88%	▲ +0.45	Very good
2.30–2.40	739	42.57%	43.17%	▲ +0.60	Very good
2.40–2.50	700	40.83%	43.86%	▲ +3.03	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	659	39.21%	38.24%	▼ -0.97	Very good
2.60–2.70	605	37.77%	37.69%	▼ -0.08	Very good
2.70–2.80	493	36.39%	39.55%	▲ +3.16	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	479	35.11%	35.91%	▲ +0.80	Very good
2.90–3.00	369	33.89%	35.50%	▲ +1.61	Good

Away 2+

▲ mostly pessimistic9 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.10–1.20	102	86.04%	90.20%	▲ +4.16	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	122	80.28%	87.70%	▲ +7.43	Weak
1.30–1.40	195	73.82%	74.36%	▲ +0.54	Very good
1.40–1.50	300	68.87%	72.67%	▲ +3.79	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	398	64.50%	72.11%	▲ +7.61	Weak
1.60–1.70	409	60.61%	65.53%	▲ +4.91	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	483	57.04%	67.29%	▲ +10.25	Weak
1.80–1.90	514	54.06%	60.70%	▲ +6.64	Weak
1.90–2.00	589	51.31%	56.37%	▲ +5.05	Weak
2.00–2.10	618	48.81%	54.85%	▲ +6.04	Weak
2.10–2.20	551	46.50%	47.01%	▲ +0.51	Very good
2.20–2.30	605	44.41%	50.91%	▲ +6.49	Weak
2.30–2.40	605	42.55%	43.47%	▲ +0.93	Very good
2.40–2.50	545	40.81%	46.97%	▲ +6.16	Weak
2.50–2.60	597	39.25%	41.37%	▲ +2.12	Good
2.60–2.70	563	37.73%	42.98%	▲ +5.25	Weak
2.70–2.80	523	36.40%	38.24%	▲ +1.84	Good
2.80–2.90	535	35.12%	37.57%	▲ +2.45	Good
2.90–3.00	515	33.88%	37.48%	▲ +3.59	Acceptable

Mix

26 of 114 ranges weak

Home Win

▲ mostly pessimistic2 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	107	94.48%	93.46%	▼ -1.02	Good
1.10–1.20	248	86.78%	84.68%	▼ -2.10	Good
1.20–1.30	319	79.99%	81.19%	▲ +1.20	Good
1.30–1.40	429	73.95%	79.25%	▲ +5.31	Weak
1.40–1.50	570	68.82%	76.67%	▲ +7.84	Weak
1.50–1.60	686	64.50%	64.29%	▼ -0.22	Very good
1.60–1.70	669	60.58%	64.42%	▲ +3.84	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	690	57.13%	61.30%	▲ +4.17	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	847	53.95%	57.02%	▲ +3.07	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	893	51.30%	52.30%	▲ +0.99	Very good
2.00–2.10	848	48.83%	50.24%	▲ +1.40	Good
2.10–2.20	630	46.55%	49.84%	▲ +3.29	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	784	44.40%	45.03%	▲ +0.63	Very good
2.30–2.40	821	42.56%	43.48%	▲ +0.92	Very good
2.40–2.50	686	40.82%	41.98%	▲ +1.17	Good
2.50–2.60	700	39.21%	39.57%	▲ +0.36	Very good
2.60–2.70	512	37.80%	36.33%	▼ -1.47	Good
2.70–2.80	403	36.37%	37.97%	▲ +1.60	Good
2.80–2.90	393	35.14%	34.10%	▼ -1.04	Good
2.90–3.00	326	33.90%	33.74%	▼ -0.16	Very good

Away Win

▲ mostly pessimistic7 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	82	93.44%	91.46%	▼ -1.98	Good
1.10–1.20	82	86.82%	80.49%	▼ -6.33	Weak
1.20–1.30	85	79.62%	83.53%	▲ +3.91	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	184	74.01%	76.63%	▲ +2.62	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	195	68.89%	74.36%	▲ +5.47	Weak
1.50–1.60	202	64.54%	69.80%	▲ +5.26	Weak
1.60–1.70	277	60.47%	63.18%	▲ +2.71	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	326	57.11%	62.58%	▲ +5.46	Weak
1.80–1.90	433	54.15%	58.89%	▲ +4.74	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	390	51.30%	56.67%	▲ +5.37	Weak
2.00–2.10	360	48.76%	55.56%	▲ +6.80	Weak
2.10–2.20	399	46.53%	48.12%	▲ +1.59	Good
2.20–2.30	392	44.42%	45.41%	▲ +0.99	Very good
2.30–2.40	389	42.59%	48.07%	▲ +5.48	Weak
2.40–2.50	431	40.80%	40.60%	▼ -0.19	Very good
2.50–2.60	516	39.22%	43.60%	▲ +4.39	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	450	37.78%	40.67%	▲ +2.89	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	434	36.38%	37.79%	▲ +1.41	Good
2.80–2.90	424	35.09%	34.67%	▼ -0.42	Very good
2.90–3.00	422	33.91%	36.97%	▲ +3.05	Acceptable

Over 2.5

▲ mostly pessimistic6 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	48	94.15%	91.67%	▼ -2.49	Good
1.10–1.20	172	86.97%	87.21%	▲ +0.24	Very good
1.20–1.30	439	79.48%	82.92%	▲ +3.44	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	1,285	73.83%	79.22%	▲ +5.40	Weak
1.40–1.50	2,023	68.88%	76.52%	▲ +7.64	Weak
1.50–1.60	2,121	64.65%	71.90%	▲ +7.25	Weak
1.60–1.70	1,707	60.70%	63.56%	▲ +2.86	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	1,405	57.14%	60.85%	▲ +3.71	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	1,180	54.11%	54.83%	▲ +0.72	Very good
1.90–2.00	984	51.33%	54.88%	▲ +3.55	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	829	48.84%	49.94%	▲ +1.10	Good
2.10–2.20	689	46.51%	46.15%	▼ -0.36	Very good
2.20–2.30	548	44.46%	45.99%	▲ +1.52	Good
2.30–2.40	463	42.60%	36.72%	▼ -5.88	Weak
2.40–2.50	325	40.82%	45.85%	▲ +5.03	Weak
2.50–2.60	275	39.30%	39.64%	▲ +0.33	Very good
2.60–2.70	217	37.82%	37.33%	▼ -0.49	Very good
2.70–2.80	136	36.38%	33.09%	▼ -3.29	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	108	35.09%	29.63%	▼ -5.46	Weak
2.90–3.00	109	33.91%	31.19%	▼ -2.71	Acceptable

BTTS Yes

mixed1 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.40–1.50	230	68.32%	66.96%	▼ -1.36	Good
1.50–1.60	961	63.93%	68.37%	▲ +4.44	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	2,691	60.66%	67.41%	▲ +6.75	Weak
1.70–1.80	2,441	57.17%	60.02%	▲ +2.84	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	2,303	54.11%	55.71%	▲ +1.60	Good
1.90–2.00	2,067	51.33%	54.86%	▲ +3.53	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	1,436	48.87%	47.42%	▼ -1.44	Good
2.10–2.20	974	46.57%	45.38%	▼ -1.19	Good
2.20–2.30	823	44.53%	45.81%	▲ +1.28	Good
2.30–2.40	537	42.62%	39.11%	▼ -3.52	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	312	40.88%	42.63%	▲ +1.75	Good
2.50–2.60	175	39.34%	42.29%	▲ +2.95	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	92	37.81%	40.22%	▲ +2.41	Good
2.70–2.80	57	36.37%	31.58%	▼ -4.80	Acceptable

Home 2+

▲ mostly pessimistic2 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	110	94.29%	93.64%	▼ -0.66	Very good
1.10–1.20	175	86.16%	90.86%	▲ +4.69	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	299	79.95%	79.93%	• -0.02	Very good
1.30–1.40	517	73.88%	78.53%	▲ +4.65	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	645	69.01%	73.95%	▲ +4.94	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	656	64.45%	73.02%	▲ +8.57	Weak
1.60–1.70	806	60.58%	66.75%	▲ +6.17	Weak
1.70–1.80	917	57.17%	62.16%	▲ +4.99	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	950	54.09%	55.26%	▲ +1.17	Good
1.90–2.00	896	51.32%	55.80%	▲ +4.48	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	911	48.80%	52.14%	▲ +3.34	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	825	46.54%	46.91%	▲ +0.37	Very good
2.20–2.30	745	44.49%	44.03%	▼ -0.46	Very good
2.30–2.40	781	42.55%	44.17%	▲ +1.63	Good
2.40–2.50	774	40.83%	41.73%	▲ +0.90	Very good
2.50–2.60	704	39.23%	40.62%	▲ +1.39	Good
2.60–2.70	600	37.76%	39.67%	▲ +1.90	Good
2.70–2.80	484	36.39%	39.67%	▲ +3.28	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	439	35.09%	36.22%	▲ +1.13	Good
2.90–3.00	391	33.89%	32.23%	▼ -1.67	Good

Away 2+

▲ mostly pessimistic8 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	43	93.46%	93.02%	▼ -0.43	Very good
1.10–1.20	93	86.87%	88.17%	▲ +1.30	Good
1.20–1.30	111	79.83%	81.98%	▲ +2.15	Good
1.30–1.40	194	73.91%	74.74%	▲ +0.83	Very good
1.40–1.50	266	68.83%	73.31%	▲ +4.48	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	331	64.51%	71.00%	▲ +6.49	Weak
1.60–1.70	452	60.53%	67.70%	▲ +7.17	Weak
1.70–1.80	455	57.22%	64.62%	▲ +7.39	Weak
1.80–1.90	509	54.00%	59.33%	▲ +5.33	Weak
1.90–2.00	566	51.34%	61.31%	▲ +9.96	Weak
2.00–2.10	617	48.77%	53.16%	▲ +4.39	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	549	46.50%	48.82%	▲ +2.32	Good
2.20–2.30	525	44.45%	49.71%	▲ +5.26	Weak
2.30–2.40	623	42.54%	46.87%	▲ +4.33	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	566	40.82%	43.99%	▲ +3.17	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	572	39.20%	46.15%	▲ +6.96	Weak
2.60–2.70	573	37.72%	42.93%	▲ +5.21	Weak
2.70–2.80	584	36.38%	39.21%	▲ +2.83	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	523	35.07%	38.43%	▲ +3.36	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	502	33.87%	35.66%	▲ +1.78	Good

ML Base

28 of 107 ranges weak

Home Win

▲ mostly pessimistic1 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	80	93.91%	95.00%	▲ +1.09	Good
1.10–1.20	213	86.80%	89.20%	▲ +2.40	Good
1.20–1.30	387	80.17%	78.81%	▼ -1.35	Good
1.30–1.40	409	73.98%	77.26%	▲ +3.28	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	531	69.04%	76.08%	▲ +7.04	Weak
1.50–1.60	726	64.52%	67.77%	▲ +3.24	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	602	60.85%	63.46%	▲ +2.61	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	655	56.97%	58.93%	▲ +1.96	Good
1.80–1.90	1,031	53.93%	58.58%	▲ +4.65	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	812	51.38%	54.06%	▲ +2.68	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	823	48.87%	51.03%	▲ +2.17	Good
2.10–2.20	574	46.53%	44.95%	▼ -1.59	Good
2.20–2.30	746	44.35%	44.24%	▼ -0.12	Very good
2.30–2.40	1,037	42.68%	45.23%	▲ +2.54	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	502	40.81%	41.63%	▲ +0.82	Very good
2.50–2.60	802	39.24%	41.65%	▲ +2.41	Good
2.60–2.70	437	37.77%	41.88%	▲ +4.11	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	439	36.39%	32.12%	▼ -4.27	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	457	35.13%	35.23%	▲ +0.10	Very good
2.90–3.00	313	33.93%	32.27%	▼ -1.66	Good

Away Win

▲ mostly pessimistic6 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	43	92.40%	90.70%	▼ -1.71	Good
1.10–1.20	114	87.88%	87.72%	▼ -0.16	Very good
1.20–1.30	75	79.17%	78.67%	▼ -0.50	Very good
1.30–1.40	184	74.14%	80.98%	▲ +6.84	Weak
1.40–1.50	221	68.88%	68.33%	▼ -0.55	Very good
1.50–1.60	166	64.62%	72.89%	▲ +8.27	Weak
1.60–1.70	259	60.50%	66.02%	▲ +5.52	Weak
1.70–1.80	423	57.12%	64.54%	▲ +7.42	Weak
1.80–1.90	386	54.20%	54.92%	▲ +0.73	Very good
1.90–2.00	375	51.34%	57.07%	▲ +5.73	Weak
2.00–2.10	308	48.81%	50.65%	▲ +1.84	Good
2.10–2.20	397	46.52%	53.90%	▲ +7.38	Weak
2.20–2.30	310	44.51%	49.03%	▲ +4.53	Acceptable
2.30–2.40	439	42.56%	44.65%	▲ +2.08	Good
2.40–2.50	417	40.83%	45.32%	▲ +4.49	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	518	39.14%	40.54%	▲ +1.40	Good
2.60–2.70	434	37.81%	37.56%	▼ -0.25	Very good
2.70–2.80	405	36.37%	40.49%	▲ +4.13	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	402	35.12%	37.56%	▲ +2.44	Good
2.90–3.00	364	33.90%	34.34%	▲ +0.44	Very good

Over 2.5

mixed5 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.10–1.20	89	86.26%	93.26%	▲ +7.00	Weak
1.20–1.30	359	79.66%	83.57%	▲ +3.91	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	1,425	73.78%	80.21%	▲ +6.43	Weak
1.40–1.50	1,703	68.95%	77.33%	▲ +8.38	Weak
1.50–1.60	2,180	64.47%	70.05%	▲ +5.58	Weak
1.60–1.70	1,734	60.75%	65.34%	▲ +4.59	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	1,439	57.20%	62.40%	▲ +5.21	Weak
1.80–1.90	1,449	54.06%	56.25%	▲ +2.19	Good
1.90–2.00	1,062	51.34%	54.14%	▲ +2.81	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	904	48.83%	49.23%	▲ +0.40	Very good
2.10–2.20	749	46.58%	46.06%	▼ -0.52	Very good
2.20–2.30	643	44.51%	44.32%	▼ -0.18	Very good
2.30–2.40	378	42.58%	41.27%	▼ -1.31	Good
2.40–2.50	344	40.83%	37.21%	▼ -3.62	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	221	39.27%	35.75%	▼ -3.52	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	163	37.80%	36.81%	▼ -0.99	Very good
2.70–2.80	119	36.41%	35.29%	▼ -1.12	Good
2.80–2.90	95	35.20%	34.74%	▼ -0.46	Very good
2.90–3.00	53	33.82%	32.08%	▼ -1.74	Good

Under 2.5

▼ mostly optimistic8 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.40–1.50	104	68.44%	61.54%	▼ -6.90	Weak
1.50–1.60	254	64.30%	70.08%	▲ +5.78	Weak
1.60–1.70	453	60.53%	62.25%	▲ +1.72	Good
1.70–1.80	741	57.11%	60.86%	▲ +3.75	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	928	53.93%	56.36%	▲ +2.42	Good
1.90–2.00	1,140	51.27%	51.32%	• +0.05	Very good
2.00–2.10	1,105	48.80%	43.98%	▼ -4.81	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	1,158	46.54%	47.93%	▲ +1.39	Good
2.20–2.30	917	44.49%	38.39%	▼ -6.10	Weak
2.30–2.40	752	42.58%	36.44%	▼ -6.15	Weak
2.40–2.50	702	40.83%	37.18%	▼ -3.66	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	862	39.21%	34.57%	▼ -4.64	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	917	37.74%	32.28%	▼ -5.46	Weak
2.70–2.80	861	36.35%	29.73%	▼ -6.62	Weak
2.80–2.90	711	35.13%	28.55%	▼ -6.57	Weak
2.90–3.00	571	33.96%	26.62%	▼ -7.34	Weak

BTTS Yes

mixed2 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.40–1.50	147	68.11%	72.11%	▲ +4.00	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	782	64.12%	67.77%	▲ +3.66	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	2,950	60.58%	67.76%	▲ +7.18	Weak
1.70–1.80	2,367	57.26%	59.57%	▲ +2.31	Good
1.80–1.90	2,561	54.05%	57.09%	▲ +3.03	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	2,183	51.32%	51.53%	▲ +0.22	Very good
2.00–2.10	1,248	48.91%	50.40%	▲ +1.49	Good
2.10–2.20	1,092	46.54%	44.78%	▼ -1.76	Good
2.20–2.30	824	44.54%	42.96%	▼ -1.58	Good
2.30–2.40	465	42.59%	38.71%	▼ -3.88	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	256	40.95%	40.23%	▼ -0.71	Very good
2.50–2.60	142	39.28%	38.73%	▼ -0.55	Very good
2.60–2.70	87	37.74%	49.43%	▲ +11.68	Weak
2.70–2.80	57	36.44%	38.60%	▲ +2.16	Good
2.80–2.90	33	35.11%	30.30%	▼ -4.80	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	56	33.76%	30.36%	▼ -3.40	Acceptable

BTTS No

▼ mostly optimistic6 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.40–1.50	59	68.42%	74.58%	▲ +6.15	Weak
1.50–1.60	81	63.99%	60.49%	▼ -3.50	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	371	60.34%	59.84%	▼ -0.51	Very good
1.70–1.80	977	57.00%	60.08%	▲ +3.08	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	1,548	54.02%	55.49%	▲ +1.47	Good
1.90–2.00	1,427	51.25%	50.46%	▼ -0.80	Very good
2.00–2.10	1,933	48.79%	48.32%	▼ -0.47	Very good
2.10–2.20	1,758	46.51%	43.69%	▼ -2.82	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	1,582	44.48%	39.00%	▼ -5.48	Weak
2.30–2.40	1,354	42.59%	42.39%	▼ -0.20	Very good
2.40–2.50	1,460	40.78%	33.90%	▼ -6.87	Weak
2.50–2.60	1,207	39.25%	32.89%	▼ -6.36	Weak
2.60–2.70	706	37.82%	30.88%	▼ -6.94	Weak
2.70–2.80	294	36.48%	30.61%	▼ -5.86	Weak
2.80–2.90	188	35.14%	30.32%	▼ -4.82	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	108	33.98%	35.19%	▲ +1.20	Good

Model Calibration Since Jun 1, 2026

Extreme

Home Win

Away Win

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

BTTS Yes

BTTS No

Cat (CatBoost Mix)

Home Win

Away Win

Over 2.5

BTTS Yes

Home 2+

Away 2+

Mix

Home Win

Away Win

Over 2.5

BTTS Yes

Home 2+

Away 2+

ML Base

Home Win

Away Win

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

BTTS Yes

BTTS No