Model Calibration June

Extreme

15 of 110 ranges weak

Home Win

▲ mostly pessimistic4 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	115	94.65%	93.04%	▼ -1.61	Good
1.10–1.20	378	86.51%	83.33%	▼ -3.17	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	547	80.06%	80.99%	▲ +0.93	Very good
1.30–1.40	599	74.12%	79.30%	▲ +5.18	Weak
1.40–1.50	812	68.91%	71.06%	▲ +2.15	Good
1.50–1.60	1,002	64.43%	67.66%	▲ +3.23	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	1,173	60.61%	64.28%	▲ +3.67	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	1,225	57.18%	61.47%	▲ +4.29	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	1,163	54.08%	57.95%	▲ +3.87	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	1,173	51.28%	55.67%	▲ +4.39	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	1,132	48.81%	50.09%	▲ +1.28	Good
2.10–2.20	1,177	46.52%	49.36%	▲ +2.84	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	1,174	44.47%	46.76%	▲ +2.30	Good
2.30–2.40	1,196	42.54%	47.91%	▲ +5.37	Weak
2.40–2.50	1,242	40.86%	42.59%	▲ +1.73	Good
2.50–2.60	1,262	39.22%	42.63%	▲ +3.41	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	1,212	37.75%	43.89%	▲ +6.14	Weak
2.70–2.80	1,209	36.39%	41.85%	▲ +5.46	Weak
2.80–2.90	1,061	35.10%	40.06%	▲ +4.95	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	941	33.91%	38.47%	▲ +4.56	Acceptable

Away Win

▲ mostly pessimistic2 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	64	94.69%	95.31%	▲ +0.62	Very good
1.10–1.20	159	86.67%	84.91%	▼ -1.76	Good
1.20–1.30	204	79.90%	76.47%	▼ -3.43	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	278	73.96%	75.90%	▲ +1.93	Good
1.40–1.50	362	68.89%	70.44%	▲ +1.55	Good
1.50–1.60	400	64.43%	67.25%	▲ +2.82	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	547	60.58%	60.33%	▼ -0.25	Very good
1.70–1.80	647	57.14%	63.83%	▲ +6.69	Weak
1.80–1.90	680	54.04%	55.59%	▲ +1.55	Good
1.90–2.00	600	51.27%	55.67%	▲ +4.40	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	567	48.84%	55.38%	▲ +6.54	Weak
2.10–2.20	613	46.55%	47.63%	▲ +1.08	Good
2.20–2.30	693	44.44%	44.44%	• +0.01	Very good
2.30–2.40	727	42.54%	44.70%	▲ +2.17	Good
2.40–2.50	779	40.83%	42.75%	▲ +1.91	Good
2.50–2.60	804	39.22%	41.79%	▲ +2.57	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	815	37.73%	40.61%	▲ +2.89	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	848	36.37%	35.73%	▼ -0.64	Very good
2.80–2.90	806	35.07%	38.09%	▲ +3.02	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	821	33.90%	36.30%	▲ +2.40	Good

Over 2.5

▲ mostly pessimistic3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	96	93.31%	87.50%	▼ -5.81	Weak
1.10–1.20	412	86.52%	83.50%	▼ -3.02	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	1,163	79.61%	81.51%	▲ +1.91	Good
1.30–1.40	2,255	73.82%	78.71%	▲ +4.90	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	3,299	68.93%	74.17%	▲ +5.25	Weak
1.50–1.60	3,791	64.56%	69.69%	▲ +5.14	Weak
1.60–1.70	3,372	60.68%	64.71%	▲ +4.03	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	2,818	57.21%	61.32%	▲ +4.12	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	2,276	54.11%	56.50%	▲ +2.39	Good
1.90–2.00	1,819	51.36%	52.50%	▲ +1.14	Good
2.00–2.10	1,388	48.83%	50.94%	▲ +2.10	Good
2.10–2.20	1,114	46.57%	50.27%	▲ +3.70	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	908	44.47%	47.36%	▲ +2.88	Acceptable
2.30–2.40	665	42.59%	43.01%	▲ +0.41	Very good
2.40–2.50	598	40.85%	42.64%	▲ +1.79	Good
2.50–2.60	535	39.25%	41.31%	▲ +2.06	Good
2.60–2.70	426	37.78%	37.79%	• +0.01	Very good
2.70–2.80	284	36.42%	37.32%	▲ +0.90	Very good
2.80–2.90	209	35.15%	35.89%	▲ +0.74	Very good
2.90–3.00	135	33.95%	34.81%	▲ +0.87	Very good

Under 2.5

▼ mostly optimistic2 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.40–1.50	267	68.45%	71.54%	▲ +3.08	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	752	64.24%	63.16%	▼ -1.07	Good
1.60–1.70	1,246	60.62%	60.19%	▼ -0.42	Very good
1.70–1.80	1,288	57.12%	54.89%	▼ -2.23	Good
1.80–1.90	1,432	54.07%	50.77%	▼ -3.30	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	1,544	51.30%	48.90%	▼ -2.40	Good
2.00–2.10	1,627	48.78%	47.39%	▼ -1.39	Good
2.10–2.20	1,668	46.53%	45.20%	▼ -1.33	Good
2.20–2.30	1,612	44.45%	40.20%	▼ -4.25	Acceptable
2.30–2.40	1,563	42.58%	38.96%	▼ -3.61	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	1,504	40.82%	37.57%	▼ -3.26	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	1,404	39.24%	34.33%	▼ -4.91	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	1,336	37.75%	33.46%	▼ -4.30	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	1,200	36.38%	32.17%	▼ -4.21	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	1,201	35.09%	29.48%	▼ -5.62	Weak
2.90–3.00	961	33.91%	27.78%	▼ -6.12	Weak

BTTS Yes

mixed3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.30–1.40	179	73.09%	69.27%	▼ -3.82	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	1,507	68.35%	65.36%	▼ -2.98	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	4,131	64.36%	64.20%	▼ -0.17	Very good
1.60–1.70	5,000	60.66%	62.70%	▲ +2.04	Good
1.70–1.80	4,223	57.23%	58.87%	▲ +1.64	Good
1.80–1.90	3,064	54.10%	56.85%	▲ +2.76	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	2,538	51.35%	52.44%	▲ +1.09	Good
2.00–2.10	2,076	48.82%	49.08%	▲ +0.27	Very good
2.10–2.20	1,504	46.54%	48.60%	▲ +2.06	Good
2.20–2.30	1,158	44.51%	46.37%	▲ +1.87	Good
2.30–2.40	773	42.61%	43.21%	▲ +0.60	Very good
2.40–2.50	512	40.89%	41.80%	▲ +0.91	Very good
2.50–2.60	339	39.23%	39.23%	• -0.00	Very good
2.60–2.70	239	37.77%	32.22%	▼ -5.55	Weak
2.70–2.80	163	36.41%	34.36%	▼ -2.05	Good
2.80–2.90	95	35.14%	28.42%	▼ -6.72	Weak
2.90–3.00	83	33.95%	40.96%	▲ +7.01	Weak

BTTS No

▼ mostly optimistic1 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.30–1.40	56	73.51%	75.00%	▲ +1.49	Good
1.40–1.50	168	68.70%	73.81%	▲ +5.11	Weak
1.50–1.60	413	64.23%	66.34%	▲ +2.12	Good
1.60–1.70	845	60.46%	61.30%	▲ +0.84	Very good
1.70–1.80	1,482	57.03%	55.94%	▼ -1.10	Good
1.80–1.90	1,951	54.04%	51.67%	▼ -2.38	Good
1.90–2.00	2,251	51.28%	51.13%	▼ -0.15	Very good
2.00–2.10	2,286	48.78%	47.86%	▼ -0.92	Very good
2.10–2.20	2,261	46.53%	43.34%	▼ -3.18	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	2,256	44.42%	43.09%	▼ -1.34	Good
2.30–2.40	2,352	42.55%	39.92%	▼ -2.62	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	2,271	40.82%	39.01%	▼ -1.81	Good
2.50–2.60	2,128	39.24%	37.55%	▼ -1.69	Good
2.60–2.70	1,875	37.75%	35.73%	▼ -2.01	Good
2.70–2.80	1,468	36.41%	36.17%	▼ -0.23	Very good
2.80–2.90	1,168	35.12%	36.82%	▲ +1.70	Good
2.90–3.00	891	33.94%	34.68%	▲ +0.74	Very good

Cat (CatBoost Mix)

17 of 116 ranges weak

Home Win

▲ mostly pessimistic

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	124	94.67%	95.97%	▲ +1.30	Good
1.10–1.20	404	87.31%	88.37%	▲ +1.06	Good
1.20–1.30	649	80.09%	79.82%	▼ -0.28	Very good
1.30–1.40	820	73.82%	75.61%	▲ +1.79	Good
1.40–1.50	982	69.06%	73.01%	▲ +3.95	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	1,189	64.45%	66.36%	▲ +1.91	Good
1.60–1.70	1,207	60.61%	60.89%	▲ +0.28	Very good
1.70–1.80	1,413	57.10%	59.31%	▲ +2.21	Good
1.80–1.90	1,477	54.04%	54.64%	▲ +0.60	Very good
1.90–2.00	1,714	51.30%	52.10%	▲ +0.80	Very good
2.00–2.10	1,565	48.82%	50.54%	▲ +1.72	Good
2.10–2.20	1,326	46.57%	49.10%	▲ +2.53	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	1,195	44.35%	46.28%	▲ +1.92	Good
2.30–2.40	1,556	42.61%	43.19%	▲ +0.58	Very good
2.40–2.50	1,252	40.83%	43.13%	▲ +2.30	Good
2.50–2.60	1,154	39.22%	40.21%	▲ +0.98	Very good
2.60–2.70	1,041	37.77%	37.85%	▲ +0.08	Very good
2.70–2.80	857	36.37%	36.29%	▼ -0.08	Very good
2.80–2.90	729	35.10%	34.84%	▼ -0.26	Very good
2.90–3.00	569	33.88%	34.09%	▲ +0.22	Very good

Away Win

▲ mostly pessimistic1 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	58	93.40%	86.21%	▼ -7.20	Weak
1.10–1.20	200	86.68%	88.00%	▲ +1.32	Good
1.20–1.30	155	80.01%	81.29%	▲ +1.28	Good
1.30–1.40	264	73.92%	75.76%	▲ +1.84	Good
1.40–1.50	383	68.95%	71.80%	▲ +2.85	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	387	64.56%	69.25%	▲ +4.70	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	516	60.44%	59.11%	▼ -1.33	Good
1.70–1.80	556	57.26%	61.15%	▲ +3.89	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	659	53.92%	54.32%	▲ +0.40	Very good
1.90–2.00	698	51.38%	54.58%	▲ +3.21	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	679	48.76%	50.52%	▲ +1.75	Good
2.10–2.20	751	46.52%	50.73%	▲ +4.21	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	753	44.45%	48.47%	▲ +4.02	Acceptable
2.30–2.40	828	42.56%	45.05%	▲ +2.49	Good
2.40–2.50	827	40.84%	39.66%	▼ -1.18	Good
2.50–2.60	785	39.24%	38.47%	▼ -0.77	Very good
2.60–2.70	870	37.76%	40.23%	▲ +2.47	Good
2.70–2.80	812	36.38%	37.68%	▲ +1.31	Good
2.80–2.90	800	35.10%	34.12%	▼ -0.97	Very good
2.90–3.00	870	33.89%	34.83%	▲ +0.93	Very good

Over 2.5

▲ mostly pessimistic3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	72	92.70%	93.06%	▲ +0.35	Very good
1.10–1.20	325	85.98%	86.15%	▲ +0.18	Very good
1.20–1.30	819	79.38%	83.52%	▲ +4.13	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	2,402	73.80%	79.73%	▲ +5.92	Weak
1.40–1.50	3,761	68.91%	74.85%	▲ +5.94	Weak
1.50–1.60	3,638	64.61%	70.45%	▲ +5.84	Weak
1.60–1.70	3,010	60.66%	63.99%	▲ +3.33	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	2,671	57.21%	60.01%	▲ +2.81	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	2,290	54.07%	56.33%	▲ +2.26	Good
1.90–2.00	1,868	51.33%	54.28%	▲ +2.96	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	1,645	48.84%	51.19%	▲ +2.34	Good
2.10–2.20	1,199	46.58%	48.04%	▲ +1.47	Good
2.20–2.30	1,075	44.43%	44.47%	• +0.04	Very good
2.30–2.40	784	42.62%	43.49%	▲ +0.88	Very good
2.40–2.50	536	40.87%	39.37%	▼ -1.50	Good
2.50–2.60	460	39.23%	40.22%	▲ +0.99	Very good
2.60–2.70	404	37.76%	34.65%	▼ -3.10	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	277	36.40%	37.18%	▲ +0.78	Very good
2.80–2.90	184	35.13%	36.96%	▲ +1.82	Good
2.90–3.00	127	33.90%	33.07%	▼ -0.83	Very good

BTTS Yes

▲ mostly pessimistic6 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.40–1.50	354	68.09%	74.01%	▲ +5.92	Weak
1.50–1.60	1,650	63.97%	68.97%	▲ +5.00	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	4,878	60.69%	65.85%	▲ +5.16	Weak
1.70–1.80	5,002	57.15%	60.92%	▲ +3.76	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	4,355	54.08%	57.45%	▲ +3.37	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	3,346	51.35%	53.23%	▲ +1.87	Good
2.00–2.10	2,576	48.88%	51.16%	▲ +2.29	Good
2.10–2.20	1,960	46.61%	46.89%	▲ +0.27	Very good
2.20–2.30	1,583	44.52%	43.34%	▼ -1.18	Good
2.30–2.40	865	42.64%	40.46%	▼ -2.17	Good
2.40–2.50	458	40.88%	35.81%	▼ -5.07	Weak
2.50–2.60	283	39.32%	43.46%	▲ +4.15	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	111	37.73%	43.24%	▲ +5.52	Weak
2.70–2.80	86	36.42%	43.02%	▲ +6.60	Weak
2.80–2.90	57	35.15%	38.60%	▲ +3.45	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	35	33.93%	20.00%	▼ -13.93	Weak

Home 2+

▲ mostly pessimistic3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	113	93.73%	95.58%	▲ +1.85	Good
1.10–1.20	369	86.80%	90.51%	▲ +3.72	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	585	79.87%	78.97%	▼ -0.90	Very good
1.30–1.40	878	73.83%	76.54%	▲ +2.71	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	1,189	68.98%	73.17%	▲ +4.19	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	1,298	64.55%	70.72%	▲ +6.18	Weak
1.60–1.70	1,506	60.60%	65.21%	▲ +4.61	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	1,655	57.14%	59.94%	▲ +2.80	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	1,821	54.06%	56.73%	▲ +2.67	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	1,720	51.31%	56.40%	▲ +5.08	Weak
2.00–2.10	1,647	48.82%	53.67%	▲ +4.86	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	1,468	46.55%	48.64%	▲ +2.09	Good
2.20–2.30	1,435	44.44%	48.22%	▲ +3.78	Acceptable
2.30–2.40	1,381	42.58%	42.87%	▲ +0.29	Very good
2.40–2.50	1,258	40.85%	46.03%	▲ +5.17	Weak
2.50–2.60	1,185	39.20%	39.16%	• -0.05	Very good
2.60–2.70	1,058	37.77%	39.79%	▲ +2.03	Good
2.70–2.80	932	36.37%	37.66%	▲ +1.29	Good
2.80–2.90	869	35.10%	36.71%	▲ +1.61	Good
2.90–3.00	734	33.91%	35.01%	▲ +1.11	Good

Away 2+

▲ mostly pessimistic4 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	40	92.48%	87.50%	▼ -4.98	Acceptable
1.10–1.20	161	86.09%	86.96%	▲ +0.87	Very good
1.20–1.30	200	80.17%	88.00%	▲ +7.83	Weak
1.30–1.40	319	73.80%	74.61%	▲ +0.81	Very good
1.40–1.50	512	68.88%	73.05%	▲ +4.16	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	637	64.44%	68.45%	▲ +4.00	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	702	60.64%	65.53%	▲ +4.88	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	859	57.07%	63.45%	▲ +6.38	Weak
1.80–1.90	927	54.05%	58.47%	▲ +4.42	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	1,028	51.31%	57.20%	▲ +5.89	Weak
2.00–2.10	1,124	48.80%	52.94%	▲ +4.13	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	1,049	46.52%	48.14%	▲ +1.62	Good
2.20–2.30	1,126	44.41%	50.80%	▲ +6.39	Weak
2.30–2.40	1,142	42.56%	45.53%	▲ +2.98	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	1,108	40.83%	45.49%	▲ +4.66	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	1,148	39.25%	40.77%	▲ +1.52	Good
2.60–2.70	1,055	37.74%	40.85%	▲ +3.11	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	1,054	36.38%	39.37%	▲ +2.99	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	1,021	35.10%	37.32%	▲ +2.22	Good
2.90–3.00	971	33.91%	34.91%	▲ +1.00	Good

Mix

12 of 117 ranges weak

Home Win

▲ mostly pessimistic1 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	194	94.74%	92.78%	▼ -1.95	Good
1.10–1.20	413	86.82%	84.75%	▼ -2.08	Good
1.20–1.30	555	79.91%	80.00%	▲ +0.09	Very good
1.30–1.40	770	73.85%	76.49%	▲ +2.64	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	1,015	68.79%	74.68%	▲ +5.89	Weak
1.50–1.60	1,281	64.46%	64.25%	▼ -0.21	Very good
1.60–1.70	1,236	60.53%	60.92%	▲ +0.39	Very good
1.70–1.80	1,256	57.17%	60.51%	▲ +3.34	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	1,526	53.98%	55.31%	▲ +1.33	Good
1.90–2.00	1,710	51.29%	51.29%	• -0.00	Very good
2.00–2.10	1,570	48.83%	49.55%	▲ +0.72	Very good
2.10–2.20	1,183	46.54%	49.45%	▲ +2.91	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	1,394	44.40%	46.20%	▲ +1.80	Good
2.30–2.40	1,512	42.56%	45.57%	▲ +3.01	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	1,256	40.82%	42.28%	▲ +1.45	Good
2.50–2.60	1,254	39.23%	39.15%	▼ -0.07	Very good
2.60–2.70	966	37.78%	36.85%	▼ -0.93	Very good
2.70–2.80	762	36.37%	37.27%	▲ +0.90	Very good
2.80–2.90	750	35.12%	35.07%	▼ -0.06	Very good
2.90–3.00	585	33.93%	33.16%	▼ -0.76	Very good

Away Win

▲ mostly pessimistic2 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	127	93.29%	88.19%	▼ -5.10	Weak
1.10–1.20	135	87.19%	82.22%	▼ -4.97	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	150	79.73%	82.67%	▲ +2.94	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	291	73.92%	72.16%	▼ -1.75	Good
1.40–1.50	340	68.86%	74.12%	▲ +5.26	Weak
1.50–1.60	363	64.43%	67.77%	▲ +3.34	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	465	60.48%	60.00%	▼ -0.48	Very good
1.70–1.80	604	57.15%	58.11%	▲ +0.96	Very good
1.80–1.90	754	54.10%	59.02%	▲ +4.92	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	668	51.34%	53.89%	▲ +2.55	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	617	48.73%	51.54%	▲ +2.81	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	717	46.54%	48.26%	▲ +1.72	Good
2.20–2.30	717	44.43%	44.91%	▲ +0.48	Very good
2.30–2.40	710	42.56%	46.20%	▲ +3.64	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	816	40.79%	41.91%	▲ +1.12	Good
2.50–2.60	1,022	39.23%	43.05%	▲ +3.82	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	849	37.77%	36.98%	▼ -0.78	Very good
2.70–2.80	821	36.37%	37.52%	▲ +1.15	Good
2.80–2.90	800	35.08%	34.75%	▼ -0.33	Very good
2.90–3.00	801	33.90%	34.96%	▲ +1.06	Good

Over 2.5

▲ mostly pessimistic3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	96	94.41%	91.67%	▼ -2.74	Acceptable
1.10–1.20	274	86.85%	86.86%	• +0.01	Very good
1.20–1.30	755	79.44%	82.38%	▲ +2.95	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	2,248	73.87%	79.31%	▲ +5.44	Weak
1.40–1.50	3,550	68.84%	75.75%	▲ +6.90	Weak
1.50–1.60	3,929	64.59%	70.30%	▲ +5.70	Weak
1.60–1.70	3,201	60.72%	64.26%	▲ +3.54	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	2,569	57.15%	59.36%	▲ +2.21	Good
1.80–1.90	2,339	54.10%	57.63%	▲ +3.54	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	1,961	51.34%	54.56%	▲ +3.22	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	1,580	48.81%	50.25%	▲ +1.44	Good
2.10–2.20	1,264	46.52%	47.94%	▲ +1.43	Good
2.20–2.30	1,009	44.47%	47.57%	▲ +3.10	Acceptable
2.30–2.40	783	42.61%	39.21%	▼ -3.41	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	534	40.86%	44.19%	▲ +3.33	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	438	39.26%	41.10%	▲ +1.83	Good
2.60–2.70	335	37.80%	36.12%	▼ -1.68	Good
2.70–2.80	236	36.38%	37.29%	▲ +0.91	Very good
2.80–2.90	162	35.11%	30.86%	▼ -4.25	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	159	33.90%	33.96%	▲ +0.06	Very good

BTTS Yes

▲ mostly pessimistic2 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.30–1.40	40	72.29%	72.50%	▲ +0.21	Very good
1.40–1.50	394	68.35%	70.30%	▲ +1.96	Good
1.50–1.60	1,582	63.95%	67.32%	▲ +3.37	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	4,962	60.65%	66.36%	▲ +5.71	Weak
1.70–1.80	4,639	57.18%	60.57%	▲ +3.40	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	4,411	54.10%	57.20%	▲ +3.10	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	3,897	51.35%	54.43%	▲ +3.08	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	2,563	48.88%	48.69%	▼ -0.19	Very good
2.10–2.20	1,758	46.55%	47.38%	▲ +0.83	Very good
2.20–2.30	1,396	44.54%	44.20%	▼ -0.34	Very good
2.30–2.40	838	42.62%	41.41%	▼ -1.21	Good
2.40–2.50	487	40.88%	42.51%	▲ +1.62	Good
2.50–2.60	270	39.31%	42.96%	▲ +3.65	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	161	37.83%	39.13%	▲ +1.30	Good
2.70–2.80	91	36.36%	40.66%	▲ +4.30	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	51	35.09%	37.25%	▲ +2.16	Good
2.90–3.00	35	33.94%	42.86%	▲ +8.92	Weak

Home 2+

▲ mostly pessimistic1 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	189	94.50%	94.18%	▼ -0.32	Very good
1.10–1.20	306	86.25%	89.54%	▲ +3.29	Acceptable
1.20–1.30	511	79.96%	79.84%	▼ -0.12	Very good
1.30–1.40	939	73.81%	76.68%	▲ +2.86	Acceptable
1.40–1.50	1,118	69.10%	72.81%	▲ +3.70	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	1,232	64.44%	71.19%	▲ +6.75	Weak
1.60–1.70	1,471	60.57%	64.79%	▲ +4.22	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	1,735	57.18%	60.98%	▲ +3.80	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	1,833	54.05%	56.52%	▲ +2.47	Good
1.90–2.00	1,705	51.33%	56.25%	▲ +4.92	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	1,640	48.79%	53.29%	▲ +4.50	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	1,547	46.57%	48.93%	▲ +2.36	Good
2.20–2.30	1,363	44.50%	45.41%	▲ +0.92	Very good
2.30–2.40	1,386	42.56%	45.38%	▲ +2.82	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	1,385	40.82%	44.04%	▲ +3.22	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	1,264	39.23%	39.24%	• +0.01	Very good
2.60–2.70	1,039	37.76%	41.00%	▲ +3.24	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	888	36.37%	38.06%	▲ +1.69	Good
2.80–2.90	829	35.09%	37.27%	▲ +2.19	Good
2.90–3.00	733	33.90%	33.56%	▼ -0.34	Very good

Away 2+

▲ mostly pessimistic3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	62	93.57%	90.32%	▼ -3.24	Acceptable
1.10–1.20	164	86.78%	86.59%	▼ -0.20	Very good
1.20–1.30	174	79.84%	84.48%	▲ +4.64	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	321	73.95%	73.83%	▼ -0.11	Very good
1.40–1.50	454	68.81%	73.79%	▲ +4.98	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	592	64.46%	69.76%	▲ +5.30	Weak
1.60–1.70	769	60.51%	65.02%	▲ +4.51	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	800	57.17%	61.62%	▲ +4.46	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	895	53.99%	56.31%	▲ +2.32	Good
1.90–2.00	990	51.33%	59.39%	▲ +8.07	Weak
2.00–2.10	1,105	48.77%	52.67%	▲ +3.90	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	998	46.50%	49.40%	▲ +2.90	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	1,042	44.46%	49.62%	▲ +5.16	Weak
2.30–2.40	1,181	42.56%	46.32%	▲ +3.76	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	1,096	40.81%	45.07%	▲ +4.26	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	1,131	39.21%	43.85%	▲ +4.65	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	1,084	37.72%	42.62%	▲ +4.90	Acceptable
2.70–2.80	1,090	36.38%	39.27%	▲ +2.88	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	1,005	35.09%	37.31%	▲ +2.22	Good
2.90–3.00	952	33.90%	36.13%	▲ +2.24	Good

ML Base

18 of 109 ranges weak

Home Win

▲ mostly pessimistic

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	146	94.39%	94.52%	▲ +0.13	Very good
1.10–1.20	372	86.63%	87.63%	▲ +1.00	Good
1.20–1.30	667	80.02%	78.71%	▼ -1.31	Good
1.30–1.40	708	73.96%	75.56%	▲ +1.61	Good
1.40–1.50	955	69.01%	73.72%	▲ +4.71	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	1,341	64.51%	66.67%	▲ +2.15	Good
1.60–1.70	1,168	60.86%	61.39%	▲ +0.53	Very good
1.70–1.80	1,176	56.98%	58.59%	▲ +1.60	Good
1.80–1.90	1,902	53.92%	56.31%	▲ +2.39	Good
1.90–2.00	1,477	51.40%	52.81%	▲ +1.41	Good
2.00–2.10	1,604	48.89%	51.00%	▲ +2.11	Good
2.10–2.20	1,011	46.52%	45.60%	▼ -0.92	Very good
2.20–2.30	1,300	44.35%	44.92%	▲ +0.57	Very good
2.30–2.40	1,934	42.70%	46.23%	▲ +3.53	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	898	40.82%	42.20%	▲ +1.38	Good
2.50–2.60	1,493	39.23%	41.80%	▲ +2.56	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	837	37.78%	39.90%	▲ +2.13	Good
2.70–2.80	842	36.36%	32.19%	▼ -4.17	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	814	35.13%	34.03%	▼ -1.11	Good
2.90–3.00	561	33.91%	33.51%	▼ -0.40	Very good

Away Win

▲ mostly pessimistic

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	66	92.39%	89.39%	▼ -3.00	Acceptable
1.10–1.20	192	87.86%	85.94%	▼ -1.93	Good
1.20–1.30	128	79.26%	79.69%	▲ +0.43	Very good
1.30–1.40	298	74.07%	76.17%	▲ +2.11	Good
1.40–1.50	383	68.91%	69.97%	▲ +1.06	Good
1.50–1.60	291	64.63%	68.04%	▲ +3.41	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	428	60.41%	64.72%	▲ +4.31	Acceptable
1.70–1.80	725	57.08%	60.14%	▲ +3.06	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	693	54.22%	53.54%	▼ -0.68	Very good
1.90–2.00	653	51.33%	54.21%	▲ +2.88	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	560	48.77%	52.14%	▲ +3.37	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	721	46.52%	51.18%	▲ +4.66	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	614	44.49%	46.74%	▲ +2.25	Good
2.30–2.40	818	42.57%	45.23%	▲ +2.66	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	744	40.82%	44.35%	▲ +3.54	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	957	39.17%	39.81%	▲ +0.64	Very good
2.60–2.70	816	37.81%	37.38%	▼ -0.43	Very good
2.70–2.80	732	36.40%	40.85%	▲ +4.45	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	782	35.12%	37.34%	▲ +2.22	Good
2.90–3.00	646	33.91%	31.58%	▼ -2.33	Good

Over 2.5

▲ mostly pessimistic3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.00–1.10	46	92.55%	95.65%	▲ +3.10	Acceptable
1.10–1.20	174	86.55%	88.51%	▲ +1.96	Good
1.20–1.30	585	79.57%	84.10%	▲ +4.53	Acceptable
1.30–1.40	2,525	73.76%	79.76%	▲ +6.00	Weak
1.40–1.50	3,036	68.91%	76.09%	▲ +7.17	Weak
1.50–1.60	3,974	64.46%	69.12%	▲ +4.67	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	3,214	60.76%	65.87%	▲ +5.11	Weak
1.70–1.80	2,636	57.19%	61.80%	▲ +4.61	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	2,743	54.06%	56.87%	▲ +2.81	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	2,107	51.36%	55.24%	▲ +3.89	Acceptable
2.00–2.10	1,673	48.81%	49.37%	▲ +0.56	Very good
2.10–2.20	1,431	46.56%	47.80%	▲ +1.24	Good
2.20–2.30	1,147	44.51%	45.51%	▲ +1.00	Very good
2.30–2.40	667	42.59%	42.13%	▼ -0.46	Very good
2.40–2.50	555	40.82%	40.00%	▼ -0.82	Very good
2.50–2.60	357	39.28%	36.41%	▼ -2.87	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	260	37.80%	39.23%	▲ +1.43	Good
2.70–2.80	195	36.42%	33.33%	▼ -3.09	Acceptable
2.80–2.90	136	35.17%	30.88%	▼ -4.29	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	99	33.87%	30.30%	▼ -3.57	Acceptable

Under 2.5

▼ mostly optimistic6 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.30–1.40	46	73.56%	63.04%	▼ -10.51	Weak
1.40–1.50	140	68.34%	65.71%	▼ -2.62	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	386	64.29%	69.69%	▲ +5.40	Weak
1.60–1.70	764	60.50%	60.73%	▲ +0.24	Very good
1.70–1.80	1,217	57.08%	58.83%	▲ +1.76	Good
1.80–1.90	1,675	53.92%	55.64%	▲ +1.72	Good
1.90–2.00	2,169	51.30%	50.71%	▼ -0.59	Very good
2.00–2.10	2,140	48.77%	44.81%	▼ -3.96	Acceptable
2.10–2.20	2,260	46.53%	44.16%	▼ -2.37	Good
2.20–2.30	1,726	44.50%	39.57%	▼ -4.93	Acceptable
2.30–2.40	1,325	42.57%	37.74%	▼ -4.84	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	1,333	40.83%	36.01%	▼ -4.82	Acceptable
2.50–2.60	1,521	39.19%	35.70%	▼ -3.49	Acceptable
2.60–2.70	1,732	37.74%	32.74%	▼ -5.00	Weak
2.70–2.80	1,579	36.36%	30.65%	▼ -5.71	Weak
2.80–2.90	1,338	35.14%	28.25%	▼ -6.89	Weak
2.90–3.00	1,017	33.96%	25.37%	▼ -8.59	Weak

BTTS Yes

▲ mostly pessimistic3 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.40–1.50	255	68.08%	71.37%	▲ +3.29	Acceptable
1.50–1.60	1,299	64.09%	68.36%	▲ +4.27	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	5,420	60.58%	66.33%	▲ +5.75	Weak
1.70–1.80	4,430	57.27%	60.29%	▲ +3.02	Acceptable
1.80–1.90	4,750	54.08%	58.40%	▲ +4.32	Acceptable
1.90–2.00	4,197	51.32%	52.01%	▲ +0.69	Very good
2.00–2.10	2,277	48.92%	50.42%	▲ +1.50	Good
2.10–2.20	1,863	46.53%	47.18%	▲ +0.65	Very good
2.20–2.30	1,424	44.54%	44.03%	▼ -0.51	Very good
2.30–2.40	802	42.61%	39.65%	▼ -2.96	Acceptable
2.40–2.50	412	40.94%	41.26%	▲ +0.32	Very good
2.50–2.60	218	39.28%	38.99%	▼ -0.29	Very good
2.60–2.70	142	37.75%	45.77%	▲ +8.03	Weak
2.70–2.80	82	36.38%	35.37%	▼ -1.01	Good
2.80–2.90	54	35.15%	25.93%	▼ -9.22	Weak
2.90–3.00	77	33.76%	29.87%	▼ -3.89	Acceptable

BTTS No

▼ mostly optimistic6 weak

Odds	Games	Model	Real	Diff.	Status
1.40–1.50	82	68.49%	75.61%	▲ +7.12	Weak
1.50–1.60	135	64.04%	61.48%	▼ -2.56	Acceptable
1.60–1.70	581	60.31%	59.72%	▼ -0.58	Very good
1.70–1.80	1,645	56.97%	59.39%	▲ +2.42	Good
1.80–1.90	2,662	54.00%	53.68%	▼ -0.32	Very good
1.90–2.00	2,562	51.25%	49.96%	▼ -1.29	Good
2.00–2.10	3,771	48.80%	47.57%	▼ -1.22	Good
2.10–2.20	3,195	46.51%	43.22%	▼ -3.29	Acceptable
2.20–2.30	2,998	44.47%	39.06%	▼ -5.41	Weak
2.30–2.40	2,571	42.58%	40.92%	▼ -1.66	Good
2.40–2.50	2,733	40.80%	35.35%	▼ -5.45	Weak
2.50–2.60	2,235	39.26%	33.20%	▼ -6.07	Weak
2.60–2.70	1,237	37.84%	31.69%	▼ -6.15	Weak
2.70–2.80	512	36.48%	31.05%	▼ -5.43	Weak
2.80–2.90	286	35.13%	32.17%	▼ -2.97	Acceptable
2.90–3.00	163	33.96%	32.52%	▼ -1.45	Good

Model Calibration Jun 1 – Oct 6, 2026

Extreme

Home Win

Away Win

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

BTTS Yes

BTTS No

Cat (CatBoost Mix)

Home Win

Away Win

Over 2.5

BTTS Yes

Home 2+

Away 2+

Mix

Home Win

Away Win

Over 2.5

BTTS Yes

Home 2+

Away 2+

ML Base

Home Win

Away Win

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

BTTS Yes

BTTS No